A team of British scientists, in collaboration with the Institut Pasteur in Bangui, is able to determine dog rabies outbreaks in the Central African Republic using a data modelling approach. This new routine analytical tool for processing disease surveillance data could be important for health authorities.

Between 6^th January 2003 and 6^th March 2012, 151 dogs with rabies were diagnosed at the Institut Pasteur in Bangui, capital of the Central African Republic. Of these, 123 had sufficient documentation including the date of notification, geographical location and genome sequences of the isolated virus strain.

Using an approach based on the representation of each type of data (temporal, spatial or genetic), researchers then identify case groups that may originate from the same introduction and infer the transmissibility of the disease and the number of introductions of the pathogen into the dog population. The results are described in the publication A graph-based evidence synthesis approach to detecting outbreak clusters: An application to dog rabies, published on 17^th December 2018.

Can we predict a future epidemic?

Modelling does not predict the exact evolution of an epidemic, but it does provide working hypotheses to anticipate several possible scenarios and make informed decisions. Early assessment of infectious disease outbreaks is essential for the implementation of rapid control measures and effective interventions.

This article was first published by the Institut Pasteur de Bangui and translated in English by Afriscitech.